The DavidCyrus Blog of Wisdom

Election Backstretch- (are they really neck-&-neck?)

We've been through two presidential and one vice presidential debates. No credible evaluators rated Bush or Cheney as winners in any of them. Current poll numbers show the race as a statistical tie. I'd have to agree with the critique that Kerry blew key opportunities in the 2nd debate, particularly by not emphasizing how President Bush seems incapable of admitting fault.

What could swing the vote at this point? The race is so close, the final tally could depend on the influences brought on by partisan efforts (reference the 5-10% drop in Kerry support due to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth) A win for Bush could be guaranteed by the confirmed capture or killing of Osama Bin Laden. Likewise, a subpoena of Dick Cheney for corporate fraud or an actual indictment could drop the Bush/Cheney ticket off the map.

I'm not expecting an October surprise. Polls will waver around the 45-to-55% midrange for both candidates, but as the election approaches, which camp will be able to rally their voters to actually turn out on election day? Republicans have historically been champions of bringing out the vote, however, if ever there was a motivation for Democrats to vote, now is the time. Theoretically, they simply have to motivate a number of voters equal to the 2000 election. The guy with less votes can't keep winning, can he?

Election Prediction: Kerry popular vote rises dramatically in the final week prior to Election Day.

Final percentages:
Kerry - 57%
Bush - 42%
Nader - 1%