Sunday, March 07, 2004
Peak Oil (...what's that mean?)
The increasing production/consumption of any natural resource follows a bell curve over time. Early consumption of the resource is cheap, easy, and plentiful. That causes an increase in consumption (i.e., the rise in the bell curve). After a while the resource runs out, decreasing production and consumption (i.e., the downward slop of the bell curve).
In between the side of the curve representing "cheap, easy and plentiful" days and the side representing the "expensive, hard, and scarce" days is the peak of the curve. At that point, the resource is as plentiful as it can get, and as the bell curve suggests, it is all downhill from there. The term Peak Oil describes the time that oil is the most plentiful that it we ever be. After that point, consumption of oil will become harder and costlier.
The rise and fall of oil production will occur. Oil, being a finite natural resource, will at some point, run out. Non-renewable natural resources all follow this pattern. But we have to consider the other forces causing this curve, and consider what will happen to them, and as a result, us.
The main force driving the increase in oil production is consumption. As oil disappears, consumption will have to disappear as well. What is causing increased consumption? Obviously and increase in world population is affecting this, as is a continual increase in oil as the energy source for the world economy. In short, all forms of transportation, most forms of food production, home heating, and any plastic production depend on oil. If oil disappears, the society and people that depend of it for life will either radically transform, or disappear.
There has been a lot of discussion on alternate strategies for producing more oil. One popular strategy is to begin drilling for oil in new areas, such as Alaska's arctic wilderness. Whether this idea is good, bad, or indifferent to the arctic ecosystem is the point here. The point is that it is now becoming cost-effective to travel literally to the ends of the earth for oil. This is only a small fact in the growing argument that we are soon reaching, or may have already reached the time of Peak Oil.
The increasing production/consumption of any natural resource follows a bell curve over time. Early consumption of the resource is cheap, easy, and plentiful. That causes an increase in consumption (i.e., the rise in the bell curve). After a while the resource runs out, decreasing production and consumption (i.e., the downward slop of the bell curve).
In between the side of the curve representing "cheap, easy and plentiful" days and the side representing the "expensive, hard, and scarce" days is the peak of the curve. At that point, the resource is as plentiful as it can get, and as the bell curve suggests, it is all downhill from there. The term Peak Oil describes the time that oil is the most plentiful that it we ever be. After that point, consumption of oil will become harder and costlier.
The rise and fall of oil production will occur. Oil, being a finite natural resource, will at some point, run out. Non-renewable natural resources all follow this pattern. But we have to consider the other forces causing this curve, and consider what will happen to them, and as a result, us.
The main force driving the increase in oil production is consumption. As oil disappears, consumption will have to disappear as well. What is causing increased consumption? Obviously and increase in world population is affecting this, as is a continual increase in oil as the energy source for the world economy. In short, all forms of transportation, most forms of food production, home heating, and any plastic production depend on oil. If oil disappears, the society and people that depend of it for life will either radically transform, or disappear.
There has been a lot of discussion on alternate strategies for producing more oil. One popular strategy is to begin drilling for oil in new areas, such as Alaska's arctic wilderness. Whether this idea is good, bad, or indifferent to the arctic ecosystem is the point here. The point is that it is now becoming cost-effective to travel literally to the ends of the earth for oil. This is only a small fact in the growing argument that we are soon reaching, or may have already reached the time of Peak Oil.
Comments:
Post a Comment
: political posts
: philosophical posts
: humorous posts
: posts on the life of DavidCyrus
: posts about family and friends
