The DavidCyrus Blog of Wisdom

When Does the Point of Inevitability Become Clear?

Answer: Several days later

There's one month left to go before the Presidential election. Barack Obama has a comfortable ~4% popular vote lead over John McCain, as well as a predicted 100+ electoral vote advantage. Undecided voters and states have been turning blue for Obama lately. Florida is now predicted to go for Obama. McCain has given up on Michigan, pulling campaign workers out of the state. With the current trends only forecasting better advantages for Obama, I am hereby calling the election: Obama will win, Democratic Congressional majorities will increase on his coattails, and there is a realistic possibility of this election being the first electoral landslide since the mid-1980's.

Typically, national voter preferences drift a maximum of about 3% during the month of October, and they usually follow late September trends. This happened in 2004, when Bush barely led Kerry by a point as October began, and moved to a 4% advantage at the end of the month. But in October 2004, there were a larger number of uncommitted voters than there are now. In fact, to turn this thing around, McCain must capture nearly every uncommitted voter left, and again, that is just not the direction that current trends are leading.

Eight years ago, the incumbent party candidate (Al Gore) was holding a predicted 193 electoral votes to George Bush's 175 votes, with 170 uncommitted electoral votes still up for grabs. That year, a series of unfortunate events (e. g., 3rd party candidate Ralph Nader, "Swift boating", Florida's butterfly ballot) resulted in a virtual popular and electoral vote dead heat, with each candidate splitting the remaining votes and voters.

Compare that to 2008. Obama now holds a predicted 250 electoral votes to McCain's 189. Only 99 electoral votes remain up for grabs. Obama needs only 25% of the toss-up votes to win. Trends suggest that he's going to get more than 50%.

As Mr. Smith, an agent of the Matrix, would say, "You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability."

I am aware that the end of Mr. Anderson was not, in fact, inevitable. But we're not living in the Matrix. Still, many faithful McCain voters hold a unshakable belief that the results of our upcoming election are far from forgone. Many still proclaim the wise selection of Governor Palin as the best choice McCain could have made.

It sometimes takes me until mid-November to to acknowledge the reality of a lost Presidential election. Sometimes December. This year, I'm sure there will be holdouts until Inauguration Day.